The Power of Perception

Back in the summer of 2020, amidst global mayhem due to the COVID-19 pandemic, my parents thought it would be a great idea to take a road trip. The plan was to have all 8 of us load up in an RV and set sail out of the cornfields of the Midwest to anywhere more exciting than being locked at home for the next 2 weeks.

So, off we went. After passing through southern Illinois, and Missouri in the first couple of days, I came to the realization I was not feeling so good. About 2 days into our journey, we decided to stop in Kansas City for some of its famed BBQ. After eating the gargantuan “Judge’s Plate” in under 15 minutes, I realized I REALLY was not feeling so good. 

15 terrible hours later spent in the RV’s only bathroom we arrived at a Denver testing site and I was unsurprisingly positive for covid. Uh oh. So, instead of being comfortable in the luxury of my own room at home in the suburbs of Chicago (which at that point I had totally taken for granted), I was trapped in a 34-foot-long incubator with my 5 siblings and parents. 

Given my sickly state, I was in no shape to embark on the hikes, canoe rides, and other outdoorsy excursions my family had planned. Paired with questionable internet service at most of our stops, my only solace was to be found in a single book I brought with me on the journey. What I did not know, was that this one book would drastically change my perspective on the world we live in.

Titled “Factfullness: 10 Reasons We are Wrong About the World - And Why Things Are a Lot Better Than You Think”, 3 Swedish statisticians explain not only why the world is getting better using data, but how our instinctual biases drive us to narrow thinking and distorted perceptions. The lead author, Hans Rosling, highlights 10 specific instincts we enact when thinking about the world and ways we can adopt a more “factful” perception of what is going on around us.

If you read my last article, you can probably guess that I am not the biggest fan of our sensational big news outlets today. 

This book provided me with a better way to think about the content I consume and how I consume it. So, what does the book suggest about the world and why is it important to read for those entering college to Gen-Xers who have lived through decades of global change?

The Gap Instinct

Often, when we think about topics, we divide them very neatly into two categories. With social groups, it's “us” vs “them”, countries it’s “developing” vs “developed”, with wealth, it's “rich” and “poor”, the list could go on and on. We often simplify the world by creating distinct differences or “gaps” to better understand what’s happening. 

While arguably more practical, this simplified thinking can lead us to big misconceptions. When looking at our world in the mid-20th century, there were a lot of gaps between countries as it relates to health, wealth, and overall well-being. One of the most prominent can be seen in analyzing family size and child mortality. 

As graphed by Rosling and his team, in 1965, there was a very clear gap between average babies per woman plotted against child mortality rates in developing and developed countries.

Yet, as shown in 2018, the story completely changes. The once-perceivable gap has eroded, with overall child mortality rates dropping in almost every single country by double digits. Due to rapid improvements in medicine, infrastructure, and the emergence of free-market economics at play globally, statistics like this are indicative of a greater narrative that the standard of living and development gap between the “West” and “the rest” has closed rapidly. Within decades and even the next few years, there will continue to be significant improvements for millions of people in various countries around the world. 

Many of the gaps we think of are ideas that may have been true years ago, but are not true today. News outlets, our parents, and even the groups we find ourselves in do a ridiculously good job of reinforcing these distinct group identities and holding firm to them even when they are outdated. It is essential that we recognize the power these identities have and evaluate if they actually hold merit now.

When we use and see broad characterizations or gaps in the media and our own lives, we often fail to see the full picture. Only when we take a step back and challenge these assumptions can we find what is true. 

Fear

What are you afraid of? Everybody is afraid of something, and if someone says they are not, well then they are probably lying.

 Regardless of how “macho” you may think you are, fear often controls what we do and how we act. For better or for worse, humans today are instinctually driven by fear despite all of the safeguards, improvements, and advancements we have made to make the world an increasingly safe place. 

In short, the homo sapiens of 20,000 years ago had it pretty rough. Day after day, our ancestors were forced to deal with incredibly dangerous snakes, lions, bears, bees, storms, and more. Unlike today, these hunter-gatherers were not just the hunters, they were also the hunted. Many of their fears of the natural environment and the deadly species within it were well warranted. While we have many of these same dangers today, we also have the luxury of complex antibiotics and hospitals, disaster safety shelters reinforced with concrete and steel, and other life-saving inventions and institutions that make the collective risks associated with our environment near zero. 

Yet, cognitively and emotionally we are practically identical to our ancestors. These same fears the homo sapiens of late had, often drive us to panic and despair today. Threats of plane crashes, nuclear leaks, and natural disasters are plastered across headlines all over the world every single day. 

Unfortunately, we consistently overestimate their frequency and underestimate the progress we have made in preventing them in the future. 

A great example of this is looking at data on fatalities associated with plane crashes. By a large margin, the risks associated with hopping on a plane go down every year.

Yet headlines such as the one below are what get national attention and lead to widespread hysteria.

I would be remiss not to mention that events like natural disasters or plane crashes are real problems that people around the world have suffered from in the past and will likely endure in the future, but that does not mean we should all be panicking every time we turn on the news.

Instead, we should remember that fear is a powerful advertising strategy and remain rational in determining fact from fiction. By using data, we can get a much clearer picture of risk and hopefully approach the next headline we see with a more analytic mindset.

Single Perspective

One of the biggest grievances I hold against social media today is how easy it is to fall into what I call a “content tunnel”. When first downloading TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, the content is incredibly varied, expressing opinions from both sides of the aisle. One is exposed to topics ranging from mythology to anime, and a plethora of different tutorials on varying subjects. Yet, with more time spent, content becomes more and more tailored to what you are paying the most attention to. For example, the content you may have seen previously about many political parties is now just fiery clips of right or left-wing political pundits making rash judgment calls with no exposure to any opposing views(not going to point any fingers…yet). 

While there is nothing inherently wrong with being fed content you are more interested in, there is a danger in only seeing one side of the coin. When we fail to see contrarian opinions or information expressed on our feeds, we get sucked into what is coined by psychologists as confirmation bias.

Essentially, what this means is that we only seek out content that affirms, reinforces, and is consistent with our prior beliefs. Previously, we had a lot of control over this, but with social media’s prolific use of complex algorithms and well-paid software engineers giving us the content that we spend the most time watching or viewing, we have less and less control over what we consume. 

To see the world and issues from multiple perspectives, we must actively seek out varied sources and opinions. This means not only through the news sources we view, but also the people we talk to, the topics we discuss, and how we fact-check. 

Statistics are a great way to try to figure out the truth, but numbers never tell the full story. Hearing people’s perspectives and stories is also essential in determining what the truth is and remaining empathetic to what others think.

Through the power of multiple perspectives, we can begin better to understand one another and the world around us. 

Controlling our Perceptions

I’ll admit, remaining rational and open-minded in the face of fear, judgment, and years of preconceived notions is pretty tough. However, we can control how we choose to absorb information, seek out truth, and talk about things that are important to us. 

By taking a factual approach, I think there is a lot of good that happens in our own minds and in our conversations. Our world is full of extreme highs and extreme lows. I would inquire that we all think a bit more about what is going on in between.

While I may have a personal bias for the book Factfullness, (as it was the only thing that got me through that hellish RV trip), I think there is a lot to gain from seeking out the full story by oneself. One place I would highly recommend to try and see clearly through the headlines is The World Bank website. It provides a ton of free information on countries around the world, large datasets to conduct analysis oneself, and charts on what changes are happening from economics to the environment on a global scale. 

If nothing on the news makes sense or you are sick of hearing your crazy uncle say the world is doomed every Thanksgiving, doing your own investigation can put things in perspective. 

 You might even find something that inspires you to be just a little bit more hopeful about our world.

-John Henry

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