El Salvador Crime Drops...At What Cost?

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5 years ago, visiting El Salvador was a death wish.

The South American nation was home to one of the highest murder rates per capita on the planet, with nearly 80% of the country controlled by violent drug gangs.

Businesses were shaken down and extorted.

Families encouraged relatives to stay away.

The whole country was in constant unease, unable to live each day without fear.

Stepping into power in 2019, President Nayib Bukele, a young, hard-lined conservative, came in with an agenda: lock em’ up.

Since 2019, Bukele and his government have imprisoned more than 75,000 allegedly gang-affiliated Salvadorians, driving the country to the #1 global spot for the highest incarceration rate per capita.

The result?

Reports by the country’s government in January announced a stunning 70% year-over-year reduction in crime in 2023.

Bukele’s administration has completely flipped El Salvador's criminal culture on its head, granting citizens peace of mind and safety unmatched by any other period in recent history.

Looking at these statistics alone, the effort seems like a huge W for the country. And to the majority of the population, it has been.

Only 3 weeks ago, Bukele was reelected in a landslide victory, with 85% of the population voting to keep him in office for another 5-year term.

That being said, nothing good in this world comes for free.

Locking up all potential lawbreakers may work for El Salvador right now, but jailing 1 out of every 45 adults likely isn’t going to be a formidable long-term solution.

A growing cohort of human rights groups have pointed out that the current state of emergency, first enacted in March of 2022, has limited Salvadorian civil liberties, leading to an increasingly powerful police force, and allowing the country to slip towards a more authoritarian governance model.

Today, the country’s citizens are faced with a problematic choice: plunge back into anarchy or have peace with the “World's Coolest Dictator”.

When children can now safely go to parks near their homes and couples can spend late nights in the city center, the choice is obvious.

Peace wins, regardless of the civil repercussions.

This past week, Bukele was a key speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C. The gathering serves as a platform for conservatives from around the globe to meet and discuss key global issues.

In his address to the crowd, Bukele encouraged the "tough on crime” mantra his administration has successfully carried out over the last three years.

When asked about how U.S. lawmakers may be able to curb unsettling homicide rates in major metros, he swiftly remarked “Incarcerate the criminals”.

I just don’t see how this is a worthwhile solution.

It is incredibly short-sided to assume that locking up criminals for prolonged periods at high rates is going to lead to a peaceful, successful democratic state in the long term.

Ironically, the U.S. is the most clear-cut example of this.

The U.S. ranks in the top 10 countries globally for prisoners per capita along with Cuba and El Salvador, with almost 2,000,000 people today behind bars.

This is more than any other country on the planet including China and India, which are almost 5x the population size of the “land of the free”.

To make matters worse, the U.S. also happens to boast one of the world’s highest recidivism rates (aka how likely criminals commit a crime again once released). After 5 years, about 70% of released prisoners will become re-offenders in America.

That being said, the U.S. isn’t alone in this problem.

Japan is recognized globally for its harsh punishments that are used to deter criminals from committing crimes not only before they happen, but afterward. This hardball stance is the reason why the island nation boasts one of the lowest violent crime rates in the world.

You would think that after being tried and imprisoned the first time, Japanese prisoners would think twice before breaking the law again.

National crime data tells a different story.

Since 1999, the number of criminals recommitting crimes has increased from a low 30% to almost 50% today.

Shockingly, not even some of the most extreme crime laws on the planet can stop people from making the same bad decision twice.

Japan and the U.S. are two of a plethora of democratic countries that struggle to keep former prisoners out of jail.

Sweden, New Zealand, and France have all struggled to deter the majority of their criminals from becoming repeat offenders, with their 5-year recidivism rates all above 50%.

Across the world, punishments just haven’t stopped crimes from reoccurring.

Talking about this idea with peers over the past weekend, I wondered if any countries had figured out what I’d call the trifecta of conquering crime democratically: low convictions, low recidivism, and high individual freedom rates.

There was one nation I was sure would take the cake: Singapore.

The small but mighty country in Southeast Asia consistently displays negligible crime levels & one of the world’s lowest reincarceration rates.

As I highlighted in a previous article, “The Cities of Tomorrow”, Singapore has seen remarkable economic growth in large part due to its strong leadership, central planning, and focus on fighting crime/corruption.

Unfortunately, it falls short on the freedom dimension.

Per Freedom House’s annual freedom index ranking, Singapore scored 48/100 (aka partly free), putting it in the same category as much less affluent countries like Sri Lanka and Senegal.

The non-governmental organization, Human Rights Watch (HRW), supports this notion, citing Singapore’s restrictive criminal laws, freedom of assembly, and abysmal rights for LGBT people.

So, if not Singapore who?

Has any country cracked the code?

After some serious digging, I found a compelling answer.

The Land of Fjords and Vikings

Only thirty years ago, prisons in Norway looked a lot like those in ‘Orange is the New Black’. Barbed wire. Tiny Cells. Generally not great.

Recidivism rates back then were above 70%, similar to the United States today.

Since then, things have changed….dramatically.

In the last 30 years, the country has completely reshaped its penal system with open-air facilities, lighter sentences, and a focus on reintegrating convicts rather than reprimanding them.

Today, Norway has one of the lowest recidivism rates globally at only 25% after 5 years, with only 54 out of every 100,000 citizens in prison.

When it comes to civic freedom, Norway is tough to beat. Freedom House granted the nation an impressive 98/100 on its 2024 Freedom Index, putting the Scandinavian powerhouse in the top 5 globally.

This awesome video from Bloomberg linked here demonstrates how Norway has reshaped its prison systems to humanize criminals and ensure they can successfully re-enter society when they finish their sentence.

Just like El Salvador, all good things come with a cost.

The average Norweigan prison spends $93,000 annually per prisoner each year compared to just $31,000 per prisoner in the U.S.

However, when you factor in the underreported social costs of mass incarceration and high recidivism in the U.S., the amount spent each year dwarfs that of Norway.

The following report estimates the annual economic burden of incarceration in the U.S. to be roughly a trillion dollars.

While there are clear differences between Norway and the countries above, it’s undeniable that a “tough on crime” policy, as El Salvador’s Bukele suggests, may not generate the best outcomes.

Not only is it costly, but it is often economically inefficient and dangerous to individual liberties over time.

While some U.S. states like North Dakota and Oregon have adopted principles from the Norweigan prison system, it is difficult to say whether they will be successful in the end.

If the U.S. is to solve its incarceration endemic, it is going to take more than bigger cells for inmates or more funding.

We must fundamentally shift how we see punishment and treat those behind bars.

For those who didn’t watch the above video, I’ll leave you with the following food for thought.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.

-John Henry

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